President Obama thinks that the best thing to do for an economy that has yet to turn around on jobs is to wait to see how the stimulus bill works, before seeking a second stimulus. This may seem reasonable, especially in the face of the widespread reports about opposition to a second stimulus from Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats. But, here’s the problem. Let’s say the stimulus works as intended. Given the “lack of complete information” about the full depth of the recession the Administration had when it crafted the stimulus, its effect is unlikely to bring unemployment down below 9%. So, the Republicans will call it a costly failure, while saying that there is no need for a further stimulus, because it too will be ineffective and also because we can’t afford another ineffective stimulus. The result will be that if it works, there will be no further stimulus.
On the other hand, let’s say it doesn’t work, then the Republicans will still be in a strong position to oppose a second stimulus, since, again they can claim that a new stimulus won’t work any better than the old one, and that it is expensive. In short, in either case, the President will not be able to get a second stimulus bill through Congress. So the President’s position of “wait and see” on the second stimulus is really saying no to the second stimulus, not saying “wait and see.”
This answer, however, carries great risk for Obama and for the Democratic Party. The election of 2008 produced a new opportunity for the Democrats to persuade people that it is, once again, the Party of the People, and that it can manage the economy in a way that creates both prosperity and a more level playing field than we have had for 35 years. But what results do we have so far. We have a bailout of the banking system which has not resulted in a flow of credit to business. We have a credit card “reform” bill, that provides 9 months to the credit card companies to do their worst to people before any reforms are effective. We have no action on any attempt to prevent the outflow of manufacturing jobs. We have a health care reform bill that promises to be all too respectful of the profits of the insurance companies to persuade people that this Administration cares about their interests, and that won’t be fully in place until 2013. In view of this, all we need is a stimulus result that leaves unemployment at 9.0 – 10.5% to persuade people that Democrats are a bunch of ineffective fools and that the President is just like any other politician. If this scenario plays out without interruption, 2010 will be a good year for Republicans, and the chances for appreciable progressive reform will be gone.
What if the President decided to ask for a second stimulus? Could he be successful in the present environment? Or is the mistake of not pushing for a bigger stimulus in the first place, a mistake he cannot recover from?
I think the answer to this question depends on the overall political context the Administration tries to create, and whether he can gather support for that context, and place the second stimulus within it. Until now the Administration has done all it could to create a context in which it works more or less collegially with members of Congress in both parties and tries to create an atmosphere of collaboration in developing legislation. This plays to the established structure on interest groups and lobbyists and makes minimal of use popular needs and sentiments. The President hasn’t created a context where he develops broad popular support for his comprehensive vision of what needs to be done, and then uses that as a backdrop for his dealings with Congress in terms of specific legislation. He hasn’t engaged the American people in his day-to-day efforts to implement his specific legislative proposals as part of “a new foundation” for America. Of course, all this has been in the background of his efforts, and he has occasionally talked about his overall vision. But this is not the same as talking about it everyday, and showing how it will help working Americans to improve their lot. It is not the same as treating the various initiatives as essential pieces in a visionary program that must be passed to make things better. Nor has the President created a sense of urgency about his vision, and the impression that he will work tirelessly to pass his new foundation program for the sake of the American people, and that he will never give up until that is done, even if it means introducing similar legislation into the Congress multiple times in the face of Republican, Blue Dog, ConservaDem opposition. In short, he hasn’t shown us or the Congress yet, that he believes in certain things and must have them, come what may. Instead, he has emphasized that he is pragmatic and is open to deals, without letting us know how those deals play into his “new foundation.”
In short, I think the President can get a second stimulus as well as success on health care reforms and other bills he wants, if he goes to the people and talks about his new foundation and tells them how the second stimulus fits in. He needs to be aggressive and persistent about this. He needs the public to get behind his program, and he needs to try to bring down its wrath on specific Congressman and Senators of both parties who obstruct his efforts to get his program passed. He needs, in other words, to take a page out of the books of those presidents who could really move people to their side. He needs to put aside his Harvard elitist “cool” persona and become the leader of a popular movement, once again. If that Harvard elitist of all elitists, Franklin Roosevelt could do it, then Obama, the self-made man of humble origins should have no trouble at all. He needs to put aside “no drama Obama,” and become, instead, “high drama Obama,” the channeler of outrage, feelings of injustice, and loss, the leader of the forces of progressive democracy in America.