Today, Stephen Bounds offered an important blog post entitled “KM and Monte Carlo Simulations” and an attached paper entitled: “Using Monte Carlo simulations to predict outcomes of KM interventions.” In the paper, Stephen uses Monte Carlo simulations along with the assumption that across-the-board KM interventions have a probabilistic (propensity) effect on “knowledge failures,” to show that if the interventions have a moderate effect on reducing knowledge failures of, say, 10%, then the intervention may still “. . . have a negligible effect on bottom-line savings over a sustained period of time.” In addition, in a related list serv post at actkm.org, he says further:
”Depending on the organisational situation, you may need to achieve up to a 50% reduction in knowledge failures before you can reasonably bank on getting a good rate of return on investment. Unless you can guarantee this as part of a general KM program, you are putting your own reputation on the line for what is essentially a gamble.”
Even though I haven’t fully digested or critiqued its assumptions yet, and even though I’m not entirely clear on what constitutes an “across-the-board,” as opposed to a targeted KM program from Stephen’s point of view, I highly recommend this paper and the related blog. It’s worth reading and thinking about before one allows oneself to adopt a KM strategy calling for a general KM program.